Prediction: The Stock Market Will Experience a 10% Correction at Some Point in 2025

The stock market is putting the finishing touches on what should be a fantastic year in 2024. The broader benchmark S&P 500 is up close to 28% (as of Dec. 17) and also posted a 24% gain in 2023. Not too shabby.

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While uncertainty remains heading into 2025, the economy looks to be on solid footing. The labor market has held strong, and inflation is declining, although it still is not at the Federal Reserve’s preferred 2% rate.

Many market strategists predict another solid year in 2025. While they may be right, I also think the market is due for some turbulence. I predict the S&P 500 will experience a 10% pullback at some point next year. Here’s why.

The market is delicate

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The market has shown incredible strength all year and fought off every challenge thrown its way — and there have been quite a few. However, I think the market is more delicate than some might believe. The S&P 500 may be up 28%, but 155 stocks in the index have generated no gain or a negative gain this year (as of Dec. 16).

In fact, roughly 360 names in the S&P 500 have generated gains below 28%. About a dozen names like Nvidia and Palantir have seen their stocks double and triple and carried the market. Many of these artificial intelligence players also trade at stretched multiples, so they are more susceptible to pullbacks and sell-offs, and could quickly take the market with them.

I also think investors will remain touchy on bad news and prone to hit the sell button, given that they’ve generated incredible returns over the last two years. We got a little taste of this when a slight miss on the July jobs report sent the market tumbling. Jeremy Siegel, a well-known finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania, went on CNBC after the July jobs data came out and called for the Federal Reserve to do an emergency 75-basis-point cut on concerns that the economy was about to tip into a severe recession.

Economic data following the jobs data would eventually quell these fears, but the incident showed how touchy investors were. We may see more of these events in 2025, whether unemployment increases or resilient inflation sends Treasury yields higher. A lot could go wrong, and investors may react strongly.

10% corrections are more common than you think

A 10% correction in the S&P 500 is certainly a big deal. However, it’s also more common than you might think. Between 2002 and 2021, the market fell 10% in 10 of 20 years with an average pullback of 15%. The market experienced declines of just below 10% during two other years in this window, so volatility has been a common theme of the 21st century.

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Corrections have occurred more recently, too. They happened in early 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in early 2022, right before the Fed began its intense interest-rate-hiking campaign and when Russia invaded Ukraine. The S&P 500 did experience a 10% correction in 2023, but has not had one in 2024. So, statistically speaking, the broader market would be due in 2025, at least if you go by trends seen in the 21st century.

Of course, past trends do not guarantee the same outcome in the future. Another thing that could happen is that the market experiences a brief 10% correction and then ends the year at a new all-time high, as many market strategists currently predict. The big takeaway is that 10% corrections are more common than you might think.

If you’re a long-term investor, you likely do not need to do anything if the market corrects 10%. History has shown that every pullback has been met with new highs, as investors usually buy the dip. However, the more prepared you are, the calmer you will be and the better you can react — even if that means doing nothing.