How did Michael Burry’s predictions for 2024 fare against the stock market?

Ever since he stripped down his social media presence, gauging Michael Burry’s opinions about the state of the stock market has become increasingly difficult. 

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Despite this, there remain several measurements available for any trader seeking to determine if the famed ‘Big Short’ investor still ‘has it’ or if he was, after all, a one-hit-wonder.

Looking at Burry’s portfolio in 2024, as revealed by Scion Asset Management’s quarterly 13-f filings, it becomes apparent that the legendary trader was neither completely right nor completely wrong with his forecasts for the year.

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To begin with, there is no shortage of stocks – many of them otherwise relatively obscure – that ‘The Big Short’ trader purchased that led to significant gains. 

A prime example of this is the stock of the luxury online retailer RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL) – an asset Michael Burry has been holding since 2023 that has appreciated well over 300% since the start of 2024.

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Burry’s more prominent – and controversial – bets on a series of Chinese giants have also done relatively well.

Indeed, even though the late September and early October Chinese stock rally proved short-lived, Michael Burry has been slowly building his exposure, meaning that, overall, he is almost certainly in the green on Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and JD.com (NASDAQ: JD), as both companies are up year-to-date (YTD).

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Still, there is some uncertainty surrounding these holdings, as it is possible that the legendary investor sold at recent highs at the very start of the fourth quarter, as the filings showcasing the balance of the Scion portfolio will not be made until 2025.

On the flip side, BABA and JD shares were the largest holdings of the Michael Burry portfolio at the end of Q3, indicating that while some selling activity was possible, it is unlikely he cleared his entire position.

The story is largely the same for another major holding, the Chinese technology giant Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) though, unlike Alibaba and JD.com, it is more than likely that ‘The Big Short’ investor did not gain much from the purchase as BIDU shares are approximately 25% down in 2024.