Kumbh Mela 2025 | Stock Market: Ready for holy dip? Sensex gave negative returns during every Kumbh Mela in last 20 years

As millions of devout Hindus get ready to take a holy dip at the Maha Kumbh Mela 2025 in Prayagraj, Sensex may also be gearing up for a dip during the 45-day-long festival season, shows historical market patterns.

As stock markets have a peculiar tendency to often follow seasonal patterns, one such seasonality analysis shows that Sensex has never given positive returns during any of the Kumbh Mela festivals held in the last two decades.

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The average loss for Sensex during the last six Kumbha Melas held since 2004 is 3.42% with negative returns during all the festivals, according to an analysis done by SAMCO Securities.

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The highest dip during the Kumbh Mela festival was seen during 14 July-28 September 2015 when the Sensex crashed 8.29%. In the previous Kumbh Mela held from 1 April to 19 April 2021, the Sensex ended 4.16% lower during the 18-day cycle.

On 5 April-4 May 2004, Sensex lost 3.29% during the 29-day period.

Data also shows that returns six months after the Kumbh Mela ends have been positive in five out of six instances. The average gains in six months after the festival ends is 8%.

The Hindu traditional belief has it that taking a dip at the Triveni Sangam, a confluence of the Ganga, Yamuna, and the mythological Saraswati rivers, at the Kumbh Mela can cleanse sins and aid in attaining ‘moksha’ (liberation).

“Fortunately, for bulls too the Kumbha Mela brings a ray of hope to wash away the karma accumulated in a bull market. There is a high chance of committing mistakes when the market is rising rapidly and participants just want to flip stocks in the lure of quick profits. Unfortunately, participants don’t realise their mistakes till there is a correction or a crash. This correction acts like a reset to start afresh just like a dip in the holy waters,” SAMCO said.

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The gravitational influence of Jupiter during its movement is also said to have an influence on Earth’s tides and can even have subtle effects on human behavior and societal patterns.

So why does the stock market also take a dip during Kumbh Mela?

“There can be several reasons behind this peculiar market behaviour during and after Kumbha. Cultural focus and economic shifts during Kumbha Mela where millions of Indians are taking a pilgrimage might lead to temporary shifts in consumption patterns and reduced economic activity in certain sectors. Such events are also deeply rooted in renewal and detachment which might unconsciously affect investor behaviour leading to more risk-averse sentiment,” SAMCO said.

Jupiter’s 12-year cycle and its alignment with the Kumbh Mela remind us that markets, like human behavior, are often influenced by factors beyond rational economics.

Investors might draw lessons from this correlation, considering the historical underperformance as a signal to adopt a more cautious strategy during Kumbh Mela, the brokerage firm said.