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Let’s examine the ‘Export Control Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion’ rule that’s sinking AI chip stocks across the market today.
- NVIDIA has released a statement criticizing the rule. They call the rule a “200+ page regulatory morass” that was “drafted in secret” without legislative review.
- One area of criticism is added layers of bureaucracy as the Bureau of Industry & Security (BIS) would need to approve purchases from a wide list of countries and set allocations for many countries.
The rules don’t go into effect for 120 days and it’s unclear how it will impact many companies across the semiconductor industry. Many details have yet to be revealed. For example, the allocations across countries the BIS would set are still not revealed.
NVIDIA itself may be falling for multiple reasons today. Beyond the new export restrictions from the Biden Administration, there are also reports of continuing issues with Blackwell production that could lead to a shortfall in revenue in the first half of 2025. Finally, rising interest rates continue to be a headwind to NVIDIA and other technology stocks.
After becoming one of the stock market’s most successful investments during Covid, Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) has had a very difficult run. The company was recently removed from the Nasdaq-100 and has seen its share price fall from a peak of around $450 per share to less than $35 in premarket trading.
The latest pain for Moderna shareholders is another reduction to revenue guidance. The company now expects yearly revenue to land between $1.5 and $2.5 billion, with most that coming in the back half of the year.
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Previously, Moderna had forecast sales of $2.5 to $3.5 billion. As you can see, this is a massive reduction in guidance. Moderna has a long runway to getting back to profitability, so this guidance reduction raises more questions how long that timeframe could take.
It’s the start of a new trading week, but little has changed since Friday. In premarket trading, the dominant factor weighing on markets is the rise of 10-year Treasury prices which hit a 14-month high. As of 8:40 a.m. ET, the yield on 10-years stands at 4.763%.
That’s a jump from the 4.57% price to start the year. As investors shift out of stocks, many ‘momentum’ stocks and others that saw strong price appreciation across the past year continue to take the brunt of the sell-off. Here’s how major indexes are performing premarket:
- Dow Futures: Down 33 (-.08%)
- S&P Futures: Down 35.75 (-.61%)
- Nasdaq Futures: Down 197 (-.94%)
It looks to be another day where technology stocks are the market’s worst performers. Let’s take a deeper look at some of today’s biggest stories.
NVIDIA Down 3% Premarket
NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) has been in retreat after hitting $153 per share last Tuesday morning. In premarket trading, the company is now trading for $131.55. That’s a 14% drop in less than a week.
Is there a reason for this drop beyond the usual headlines? One story to watch is export controls announced by the Biden Administration on their way out the door. The Biden Administration formally announced 200 pages of new regulation around AI chip exports this morning.
The regulation creates three tiers of countries that can receive artificial intelligence chips, akin to what defense contractors have to navigate when exporting weapons systems.
The first tier is allied nations with no export controls. The second tier is countries with some limits. A final tier would include China and have extremely strong export restrictions.
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It’s likely semiconductors – and AI chip stocks – could have a difficult week as the market digests how severe these new regulations are. Of course, with the Trump Administration coming into power next week, these new regulations could quickly become a bargaining chip that’s eliminated.
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